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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bills week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-8
21
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
13 mph
28
BUFBills
5-5
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
7
7
21
Bills
0
6
14
8
28

Spread

JAX logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
301
306
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
118
151
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
12/18(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.06
Rushing Yards
183
155
Rush Attempts
37
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-2.83
-7.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
31
Penalty EPA
-9.21
-4.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+27.7
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32
10/23
-3.2
25
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65
11/13
2.2
65
11/20
-2.3
31
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
25
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18

EPA

EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
1
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U