JAXJaguars
2-8
21
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
13 mph
28
BUFBills
5-5
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
7
7
21
Bills
0
6
14
8
28
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
306
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
118
151
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
12/18(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.06
Rushing Yards
183
155
Rush Attempts
37
30
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-2.83
-7.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
31
Penalty EPA
-9.21
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+36.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
25
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U