JAXJaguars
3-7
21
TBD
New Era Field
44°F
12 mph
24
BUFBills
3-7
TBD
New Era Field
44°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
14
0
0
10
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
327
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
107
--
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
8/19(42%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.24
Rushing Yards
226
167
Rush Attempts
39
35
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
6
4
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.40
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-3.37
--
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
90
80
Penalty EPA
-10.11
-6.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,279
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+93.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.3
Home QB Adjustment
+33.2
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+33.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U