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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bills week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-7
21
TBD
New Era Field
44°F
12 mph
24
BUFBills
3-7
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
44°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
14
0
0
10
24

Spread

BUF logo
+3

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
333
327
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
107
--
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
8/19(42%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.24
Rushing Yards
226
167
Rush Attempts
39
35
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
6
4
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.40
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-3.37
--
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
90
80
Penalty EPA
-10.11
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,275
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+94.8
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.3
Home QB Adjustment
+33.2
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-1.3
37
09/16
11.0
97
09/23
-3.9
23
09/30
8.3
92
10/07
-4.1
21
10/14
-5.6
15
10/21
-4.2
21
10/28
-0.0
46
11/11
6.6
88
11/18
-9.1
6
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+33.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
09/30
-15.4
0
10/07
-4.9
18
10/14
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15

EPA

EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
23
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
20

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
20
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
10/14
-33
L
L
O
10/21
-13
L
L
U
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/11
-3
L
P
O
11/18
-4
L
P
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
-22
L
L
U
10/07
1
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
W
U
10/21
-32
L
L
U
10/29
-19
L
L
U
11/04
-32
L
L
O
11/11
31
W
W
O