JAXJaguars
2-9
18
TBD
New Era Field
52°F
17 mph
34
BUFBills
4-7
TBD
New Era Field
52°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
10
0
8
18
Bills
7
10
10
7
34
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
344
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
3.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
19/42(45%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.03
Rushing Yards
52
232
Rush Attempts
19
46
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
10%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-2.72
-4.23
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-7.02
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
74
100
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-9.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,334
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U