JAXJaguars
2-9
32
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
7 mph
28
CLEBrowns
4-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
13
0
10
30
Browns
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
439
Total Plays
72
73
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
202
342
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
112
97
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.19
-11.25
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-1
-28
Sack EPA
-2.49
-7.17
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.1%
Spread Pick
Browns-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,199
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-51.6
Home QB Adjustment
-32.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
192.1
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-32.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
16
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
24
27
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U