JAXJaguars
7-8
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
16°F
20 mph
23
CLEBrowns
4-11
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
16°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
14
17
Browns
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
300
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
197
--
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
7/11(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.05
Rushing Yards
131
214
Rush Attempts
24
49
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.51
-3.72
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.47
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
15
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-2.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model46.6%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+2.0
Expected Value
+1.8%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,337
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
-22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-19.7
Final Difference
-23.8
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U