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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ browns week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
7-8
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
16°F
20 mph
23
CLEBrowns
4-11
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
16°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
14
17
Browns
3
10
7
3
23

Spread

CLE logo
-2

Total

OVER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
328
300
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
197
--
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
7/11(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.05
Rushing Yards
131
214
Rush Attempts
24
49
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.51
-3.72
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.47
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
15
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-2.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model46.5%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.8%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,334
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
-22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-19.7
Final Difference
-24.7
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Value
Ptile
10/18
0.8
55
11/01
-9.6
3
11/08
3.3
71
11/15
3.6
73
11/22
1.3
58
11/29
-1.2
43
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-5.3
18
12/17
1.1
56
12/27
-1.3
41
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.8
Value
Ptile
10/19
-4.6
18
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
0.8
58
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
10/11
-11.1
2
10/18
-6.3
13
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Jaguars logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Browns logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
-17
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
U
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-4
L
L
U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-9
L
W
U
12/06
-7
L
W
O
12/10
7
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U