JAXJaguars
8-6
12
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
72°F
11 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
7-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
72°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
6
6
12
Buccaneers
3
17
10
0
30
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
335
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
4.8
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.08
Passing Yards
268
265
Comp/Att
28/46(61%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.37
Rushing Yards
37
70
Rush Attempts
13
36
Yards / Rush
2.8
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
19
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.44
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-37
-18
Sack EPA
-9.09
-3.80
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
20
44
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-5.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+45.4
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
19
22
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
19
18
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U