JAXJaguars
1-0
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
76°F
8 mph
38
LACChargers
0-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
0
7
13
Chargers
7
14
3
14
38
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
477
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
5.1
8.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.19
Passing Yards
279
326
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
11.2
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.47
Rushing Yards
71
151
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-23.82
-11.17
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-2.88
-1.35
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
33
25
Penalty EPA
-2.37
-2.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U