JAXJaguars
0-1
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
7 mph
38
LACChargers
0-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
14
14
Chargers
7
14
14
3
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
357
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.24
Passing Yards
319
207
Comp/Att
31/50(62%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.22
Rushing Yards
69
150
Rush Attempts
11
35
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
18%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.43
-5.04
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-5.13
-7.87
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
88
23
Penalty EPA
-11.01
-2.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
Chargers-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
102.4
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
27
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U