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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chargers week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-1
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
7 mph
38
LACChargers
0-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
14
14
Chargers
7
14
14
3
38

Spread

LAC logo
-3

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
388
357
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.24
Passing Yards
319
207
Comp/Att
31/50(62%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.22
Rushing Yards
69
150
Rush Attempts
11
35
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
18%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.43
-5.04
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-5.13
-7.87
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
88
23
Penalty EPA
-11.01
-2.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
+6.9
Final Difference
103.1
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Value
Ptile
11/08
-1.1
43
11/15
-5.1
14
11/19
-2.6
31
11/29
2.7
71
12/06
8.1
94
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
7.1
91
11/09
0.3
52
11/22
-4.4
18
11/29
6.3
88
12/06
-7.7
5
12/13
-5.8
12
12/20
2.9
72
12/24
2.5
68
01/03
-1.3
41
09/11
3.9
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
25
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
23
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-5
L
W
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/19
6
W
W
U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-3
L
P
O
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-30
L
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
16
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
09/11
-6
L
W
O