JAXJaguars
3-1
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
5 mph
30
KCChiefs
4-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
502
424
Total Plays
83
69
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
401
298
Comp/Att
33/61(54%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.27
Rushing Yards
101
126
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.48
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
26
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
20%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-27.64
-7.82
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-15
Sack EPA
-7.23
-1.44
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
45
105
Penalty EPA
-15.19
-6.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U