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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chiefs week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-1
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
5 mph
30
KCChiefs
4-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
502
424
Total Plays
83
69
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
401
298
Comp/Att
33/61(54%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.27
Rushing Yards
101
126
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.48
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
29
26
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
20%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-27.64
-7.82
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-15
Sack EPA
-7.23
-1.44
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
45
105
Penalty EPA
-15.19
-6.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
2.7
72
12/31
-10.0
3
01/07
0.9
59
01/14
3.3
77
01/21
0.8
57
09/09
-1.3
37
09/16
11.0
97
09/23
-3.9
23
09/30
8.3
92
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
12/31
-1.8
39
09/09
6.6
88
09/16
14.8
99
09/23
4.4
76
10/01
5.1
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
1
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
1
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
38
W
W
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
-5
L
L
U
01/07
7
W
L
U
01/14
3
W
W
O
01/21
-4
L
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
19
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-7
L
L
O
12/10
11
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
3
W
W
O
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/09
10
W
W
O
09/16
5
W
W
O
09/23
11
W
W
O
10/01
4
W
W
U