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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chiefs week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-3
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
15 mph
42
KCChiefs
3-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
7
0
20
Chiefs
7
7
8
14
36

Spread

KC logo
-9

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
300
426
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.40
Passing Yards
216
190
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.77
Rushing Yards
84
236
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.78
+1.71
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-2.49
-1.04
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
43
92
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-10.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+75.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-69.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
213.4
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bouman headshot

T. Bouman

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-69.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
11.9
99
12/16
-1.3
44
12/23
-5.6
14
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
0.1
53
01/01
-1.9
38
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/06
-10.8
2
12/13
-9.0
4
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
-1.6
40
01/03
-1.4
40
09/13
-4.2
22
09/19
-5.7
14
09/26
4.6
80
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
3
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
7
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-4
L
L
U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-25
L
L
O
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-7
L
W
U
01/03
20
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/19
2
W
W
U
09/26
21
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-4
L
W
O