JAXJaguars
3-3
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
15 mph
42
KCChiefs
3-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
7
0
20
Chiefs
7
7
8
14
36
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
426
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.40
Passing Yards
216
190
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.77
Rushing Yards
84
236
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.78
+1.71
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-2.49
-1.04
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
43
92
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-10.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+75.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-69.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
213.7
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bouman
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-69.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
3
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U