JAXJaguars
2-5
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
7 mph
19
KCChiefs
5-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
7
14
Chiefs
7
3
6
3
19
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
231
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
6.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.14
Passing Yards
244
169
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.38
Rushing Yards
205
62
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
6.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
17
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.29
+5.20
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-2.21
-3.65
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
46
60
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-9.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-87.8
Home QB Adjustment
-78.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-78.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
12
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U