JAXJaguars
-
12
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
014
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
0
6
12
Colts
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
365
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.07
Passing Yards
114
294
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.30
Rushing Yards
114
71
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.19
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.36
-1.38
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
24
17
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-2.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model74.6%
Spread Pick
Colts-6.5
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
186.9
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
17
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Colts
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U