JAXJaguars
1-9
3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
6-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Colts
3
3
14
3
23
Spread
-13.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
194
389
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
3.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.07
Passing Yards
114
214
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.74
-0.28
Rushing Yards
80
175
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-12.50
-16.43
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-32
-39
Sack EPA
-6.09
-15.97
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
43
54
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-5.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,286
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U