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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
8-5
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
34
INDColts
7-6
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
4
7
7
18
Colts
7
7
10
10
34

Spread

IND logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
356
376
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.16
Passing Yards
289
221
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.15
Rushing Yards
67
155
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.64
+5.52
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.92
-1.54
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
55
68
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-8.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
137.3
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
2.5
66
10/18
-5.7
14
10/31
8.9
95
11/14
7.9
93
11/21
-5.7
14
11/28
-2.4
33
12/05
0.7
53
12/12
0.7
53
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
5.6
86
10/10
-2.2
34
10/17
5.6
85
11/01
2.0
61
11/07
-1.8
38
11/14
-2.7
31
11/21
8.3
94
11/28
-0.7
44
12/05
2.4
65
12/09
7.3
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
1
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
10/31
18
W
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
O
11/21
4
W
W
O
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
U
10/17
3
W
P
O
11/01
13
W
W
U
11/07
-2
L
W
O
11/14
6
W
L
U
11/21
-3
L
W
O
11/28
-22
L
L
P
12/05
-3
L
L
O
12/09
2
W
L
O