JAXJaguars
8-5
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
7-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
4
7
7
18
Colts
7
7
10
10
34
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
376
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.16
Passing Yards
289
221
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.15
Rushing Yards
67
155
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.64
+5.52
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.92
-1.54
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
55
68
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-8.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Colts-4.5
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
138.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U