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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ commanders week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-1
10
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph
41
WASCommanders
0-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
3
10
Commanders
7
14
3
17
41

Spread

WAS logo
-5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
148
449
Total Plays
48
81
Yards / Play
3.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.19
Passing Yards
123
258
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.39
Rushing Yards
25
191
Rush Attempts
10
42
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
8
32
Passing 1st downs
4
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
23%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
--
Sacks
10
3
Sack Yards
-70
-30
Sack EPA
-15.50
-5.51
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
44
98
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-9.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
10/27
3.2
72
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-1.6
42
11/24
-1.6
41
12/01
-2.5
36
12/05
-0.7
46
12/15
-3.1
30
12/22
1.1
58
12/29
-0.9
45
09/07
0.6
53
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
7.6
91
10/27
-9.4
4
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
16
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-32
L
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
O
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/24
7
W
W
U
12/01
4
W
W
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-4
L
P
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
09/07
-17
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U