JAXJaguars
0-1
10
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph
41
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
3
10
Commanders
7
14
3
17
41
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
148
449
Total Plays
48
81
Yards / Play
3.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.19
Passing Yards
123
258
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.39
Rushing Yards
25
191
Rush Attempts
10
42
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
32
Passing 1st downs
4
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
23%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
--
Sacks
10
3
Sack Yards
-70
-30
Sack EPA
-15.50
-5.51
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
44
98
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-9.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,337
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
16
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U