JAXJaguars
3-4
35
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
1-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
14
7
35
Cowboys
3
0
0
14
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
415
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.09
Passing Yards
238
365
Comp/Att
17/21(81%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.90
+0.04
Rushing Yards
149
50
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
-20.25
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-14
Sack EPA
-7.44
-3.37
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-8.37
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-110.1
Home QB Adjustment
-115.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.2
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-115.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
27
6
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U