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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ cowboys week 8, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-4
35
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
1-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
14
7
35
Cowboys
3
0
0
14
17

Spread

JAX logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
387
415
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.09
Passing Yards
238
365
Comp/Att
17/21(81%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.90
+0.04
Rushing Yards
149
50
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
-20.25
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-14
Sack EPA
-7.44
-3.37
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-8.37
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model70.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-110.1
Home QB Adjustment
-115.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
146.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
12/13
-5.3
18
12/17
1.1
56
12/27
-1.3
41
01/03
0.0
49
09/12
5.0
82
09/19
-7.8
7
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
2.5
66
10/18
-5.7
14
J. Kitna headshot

J. Kitna

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-115.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.3
23
12/02
2.4
67
12/09
2.2
66
12/16
-1.9
36
12/23
-5.6
15
12/30
-2.6
34
09/07
2.3
68
09/14
-6.0
11
09/21
-5.6
12
10/05
-6.2
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
27
6
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cowboys logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
8
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
8
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-25
L
L
O
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
20
W
W
O
01/17
-31
L
L
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
-7
L
L
O
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/25
-6
L
L
O