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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ dolphins week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-11
3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
24
MIADolphins
5-8
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Dolphins
3
7
6
8
24

Spread

MIA logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
299
391
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.22
Passing Yards
213
211
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.15
Rushing Yards
86
180
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.15
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.10
-5.15
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
88
41
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-3.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,288
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
12/19
2.2
63
12/26
-1.0
42
01/02
-9.7
4
09/12
9.1
96
09/18
-4.8
20
09/25
-1.5
40
10/02
-6.1
13
11/25
-5.4
16
12/02
-5.1
18
12/09
-9.0
4
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
0.9
56
10/07
-1.9
37
10/14
2.5
65
10/28
-5.8
13
11/04
0.3
52
11/11
-8.2
5
11/15
-9.0
4
11/25
4.3
77
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
25
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Dolphins logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30

EPA

EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
19
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-17
L
L
U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-9
L
W
U
11/04
-17
L
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/18
-6
L
W
O
11/25
5
W
W
U
12/02
-16
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-3
L
W
O
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/28
21
W
W
O
11/04
-3
L
L
U
11/11
-34
L
L
U
11/15
-5
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O