JAXJaguars
2-11
3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
24
MIADolphins
5-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Dolphins
3
7
6
8
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
391
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.22
Passing Yards
213
211
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.15
Rushing Yards
86
180
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.15
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.10
-5.15
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
88
41
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-3.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,292
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
19
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U