JAXJaguars
4-10
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
9 mph
7
MIADolphins
7-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
0
4
11
Dolphins
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
183
Total Plays
62
43
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.60
Passing Yards
118
121
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.38
Rushing Yards
126
62
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
11
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-14.12
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-27
-25
Sack EPA
-12.76
-3.78
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
97
95
Penalty EPA
+1.23
-11.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+76.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-77.8
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-77.8
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
32
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
31
20
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
1-7-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U