JAXJaguars
4-9
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
041
ATLFalcons
8-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
1
7
8
Falcons
10
17
8
0
35
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
373
Total Plays
46
68
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.07
Passing Yards
91
276
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.97
+0.56
Rushing Yards
116
97
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.33
+6.38
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-50
-4
Sack EPA
-19.08
-1.94
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
31
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-4.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+58.3
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
17
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
27
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-8
O/U