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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ giants week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
-
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
7 mph
15
NYGGiants
-
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
1
14
Giants
3
3
3
6
15

Spread

JAX logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
305
324
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.23
Passing Yards
168
210
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
137
114
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.14
-7.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-1.57
-1.73
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
119
--
Penalty EPA
-13.72
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
11/19
-4.2
24
11/26
1.1
60
12/03
7.9
93
12/10
4.2
81
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
2.7
72
12/31
-10.0
3
01/07
0.9
59
01/14
3.3
77
01/21
0.8
57
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-3.5
27
11/05
-1.6
41
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-1.7
40
11/23
-11.5
1
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22
12/31
-8.4
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense
Jaguars logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21

EPA

EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Giants logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
29
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
12
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
38
W
W
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
-5
L
L
U
01/07
7
W
L
U
01/14
3
W
W
O
01/21
-4
L
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-34
L
L
O
11/12
-10
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
-10
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
W
U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U