JAXJaguars
-
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
7 mph
15
NYGGiants
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
1
14
Giants
3
3
3
6
15
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
324
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.23
Passing Yards
168
210
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
137
114
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.14
-7.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-1.57
-1.73
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
119
--
Penalty EPA
-13.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U