JAXJaguars
6-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
6 mph
24
NYGGiants
6-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
0
3
20
Giants
3
3
3
15
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
363
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
4.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.22
Passing Yards
121
--
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.44
Rushing Yards
207
137
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
15
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
63%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.00
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-41
--
Sack EPA
-7.73
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
25
Penalty EPA
-1.68
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
Giants-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
-30.9
Final Difference
204.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
13
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8
EPA
EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U