JAXJaguars
2-1
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
5 mph
23
NYJJets
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
4
0
14
Jets
7
3
10
0
3
23
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
471
Total Plays
75
69
Yards / Play
4.1
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.17
Passing Yards
136
215
Comp/Att
15/35(43%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.03
Rushing Yards
175
256
Rush Attempts
39
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
8.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
27%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.43
-15.50
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-4
-40
Sack EPA
-1.22
-6.47
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
47
70
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-8.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.0
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
-65.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U