JAXJaguars
4-4
24
TBD
Giants Stadium
62°F
5 mph
22
NYJJets
4-4
TBD
Giants Stadium
62°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
14
0
3
24
Jets
10
3
0
9
22
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
322
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
208
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.20
Rushing Yards
139
110
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-12.55
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.01
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-2.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model73.7%
Spread Pick
Jets-6.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
178.5
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
6
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U