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  1. nfelo...
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  3. jaguars @ jets week 10, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
4-4
24
TBD
Giants Stadium
62°F
5 mph
22
NYJJets
4-4
NYJ logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
62°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
14
0
3
24
Jets
10
3
0
9
22

Spread

JAX logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
347
322
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
208
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.20
Rushing Yards
139
110
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-12.55
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.01
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-2.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model73.6%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
178.1
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76
10/04
10.3
97
10/11
-5.0
21
10/18
0.8
55
11/01
-9.6
3
11/08
3.3
71
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.1
56
09/20
-1.1
43
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
10/12
-0.4
47
10/18
-15.8
0
10/25
1.8
62
11/01
5.1
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7

EPA

EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
1
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
6
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
16
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
20
W
W
O
10/11
-41
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
-17
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
17
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/12
-4
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
L
U
10/25
38
W
W
O
11/01
-5
L
L
O