JAXJaguars
4-7
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
040
DETLions
4-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
8
0
14
Lions
14
9
7
10
40
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
437
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.30
Passing Yards
173
337
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.53
Rushing Yards
95
100
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
31
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-3
Sack EPA
-1.91
-2.30
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
24
--
Penalty EPA
-3.16
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
4
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12
EPA
EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
4
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U