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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ packers week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-5
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
44°F
10 mph
24
GBPackers
4-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
44°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
9
0
3
15
Packers
7
1
0
10
18

Spread

JAX logo
+16

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
341
238
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.7
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.10
Passing Yards
279
172
Comp/Att
27/50(54%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.15
Rushing Yards
62
66
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-5.00
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-4.58
-6.55
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
77
33
Penalty EPA
-10.00
-3.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+360
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
+65.7
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
12/24
-5.6
16
01/01
-6.4
12
09/09
1.2
58
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
-2.1
35
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
10/21
-2.0
36
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99
01/15
1.8
65
09/09
4.4
77
09/13
-4.4
23
09/24
-4.8
20
09/30
9.6
96
10/07
1.9
62
10/14
14.1
99
10/21
9.1
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Jaguars logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25

EPA

EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
25
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Packers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
20
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
2
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
12/24
-6
L
W
O
01/01
6
W
W
U
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O
01/15
-17
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/24
-2
L
L
U
09/30
1
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
L
O
10/14
18
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O