JAXJaguars
1-5
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
44°F
10 mph
24
GBPackers
4-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
44°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
9
0
3
15
Packers
7
1
0
10
18
Spread
+16
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
238
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.7
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.10
Passing Yards
279
172
Comp/Att
27/50(54%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.15
Rushing Yards
62
66
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-5.00
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-4.58
-6.55
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
77
33
Penalty EPA
-10.00
-3.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+365
Home nfelo
1,652
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
+53.2
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U