JAX logo
JAX
7-7
7
35
NE
9-5
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
7
21
0
7
35

Spread

NE logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
275
464
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.3
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.37
Passing Yards
177
--
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.93
Rushing Yards
98
197
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.13
-4.96
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
234.0
Model Spread
-10.0

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
11
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24