JAXJaguars
7-7
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
14 mph
35
NEPatriots
9-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
7
21
0
7
35
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
464
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.3
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.37
Passing Yards
177
--
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.93
Rushing Yards
98
197
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.13
-4.96
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots-9.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
234.0
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U