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  1. nfelo...
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  3. jaguars @ patriots week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
7-7
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
14 mph
35
NEPatriots
9-5
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
7
21
0
7
35

Spread

NE logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
275
464
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.3
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.37
Passing Yards
177
--
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.93
Rushing Yards
98
197
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.13
-4.96
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
234.0
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
-5.0
21
10/18
0.8
55
11/01
-9.6
3
11/08
3.3
71
11/15
3.6
73
11/22
1.3
58
11/29
-1.2
43
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-5.3
18
12/17
1.1
56
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
3.1
70
10/18
15.2
100
10/25
5.3
84
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
8.1
92
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
11
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-41
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
-17
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
U
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-4
L
L
U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
59
W
W
O
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
-1
L
P
O
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U