JAXJaguars
12-6
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
3 mph
24
NEPatriots
14-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
3
3
20
Patriots
3
7
0
14
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
344
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
273
298
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.12
Rushing Yards
101
46
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
-12
Sack EPA
-4.24
-3.65
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
98
--
Penalty EPA
-7.01
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.5
Expected Value
+23.7%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,734
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+75.6
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
244.3
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
6
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U