JAXJaguars
0-1
9
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
76°F
10 mph
19
OAKRaiders
0-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
76°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
6
9
Raiders
7
3
3
6
19
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
340
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
3.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.00
Passing Yards
214
114
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.08
Rushing Yards
34
226
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
1.8
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
41%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.88
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-27
-12
Sack EPA
-5.12
-4.26
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
70
30
Penalty EPA
-11.37
-3.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
Raiders-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,280
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
153.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
24
27
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U