JAXJaguars
1-4
23
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
11 mph
26
OAKRaiders
1-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
10
3
3
0
23
Raiders
3
3
7
10
3
26
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
351
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
155
282
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.10
Rushing Yards
54
69
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
7%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+2.82
-10.74
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-16
Sack EPA
-4.65
-6.89
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
92
58
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
25
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U