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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ raiders week 7, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-4
23
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
11 mph
26
OAKRaiders
1-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
10
3
3
0
23
Raiders
3
3
7
10
3
26

Spread

JAX logo
+6

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
209
351
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
155
282
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.10
Rushing Yards
54
69
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
7%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+2.82
-10.74
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-16
Sack EPA
-4.65
-6.89
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
92
58
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-5.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,359
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
+36.2
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Value
Ptile
12/05
-1.1
44
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
12/24
-5.6
16
01/01
-6.4
12
09/09
1.2
58
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
-2.1
35
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15
12/18
7.0
90
12/24
-0.7
47
01/01
8.0
94
09/10
2.7
66
09/16
2.3
63
09/23
4.2
76
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
25
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30

EPA

EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
31
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
28
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
12/24
-6
L
W
O
01/01
6
W
W
U
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/16
-22
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U