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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ rams week 5, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-4
20
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
34
LARRams
1-3
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
0
3
7
20
Rams
1
17
0
10
28

Spread

LAR logo
-11

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
363
351
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
6.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.01
Passing Yards
267
208
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.14
Rushing Yards
96
143
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.20
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-14
Sack EPA
-2.61
-3.24
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-4.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+276
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,240
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-25.7
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-25.7
Value
Ptile
09/23
-2.1
35
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
10/21
-2.0
36
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48
11/08
-5.3
16
11/18
-4.1
24
09/08
-14.5
0
09/29
-11.1
2
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
11/25
-1.2
41
12/02
2.7
67
12/09
-3.0
30
12/16
3.5
72
12/23
-3.1
29
12/30
2.3
64
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Jaguars logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
30
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Rams logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
5
W
W
U
12/02
-16
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-21
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/30
-18
L
L
O
09/08
-26
L
L
U
09/15
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-28
L
L
O
09/29
-34
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
14
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
O
12/23
15
W
W
U
12/30
-7
L
W
U
09/08
3
W
L
O
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O