JAXJaguars
0-4
20
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
034
LARRams
1-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
0
3
7
20
Rams
1
17
0
10
28
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
351
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
6.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.01
Passing Yards
267
208
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.14
Rushing Yards
96
143
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.20
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-14
Sack EPA
-2.61
-3.24
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-4.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+276
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,240
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-25.7
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-25.7
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U