JAXJaguars
2-6
22
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
10 mph
20
BALRavens
2-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
3
9
22
Ravens
0
14
0
6
20
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
397
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
3.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
168
308
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.10
Rushing Yards
90
89
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
25%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.56
-12.99
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-8
Sack EPA
-5.89
-5.65
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Ravens-4.5
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+101.0
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
180.6
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
23
26
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
24
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U