nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ ravens week 10, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-6
22
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
10 mph
20
BALRavens
2-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
3
9
22
Ravens
0
14
0
6
20

Spread

JAX logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
258
397
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
3.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
168
308
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.10
Rushing Yards
90
89
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
25%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.56
-12.99
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-8
Sack EPA
-5.89
-5.65
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.5%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+101.0
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
180.6
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Value
Ptile
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
10/04
3.5
76
10/11
2.6
69
10/18
-0.0
50
10/25
-5.0
16
11/08
-1.1
43
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
01/03
1.7
63
01/10
4.8
81
09/13
-9.3
2
09/20
6.8
90
09/27
6.1
87
10/01
-8.0
4
10/11
2.8
72
10/18
2.1
65
10/26
-1.5
40
11/01
3.0
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
23
26
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
24
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
O
10/18
-11
L
L
O
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-5
L
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
13
W
W
U
01/10
-4
L
W
O
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/18
-5
L
L
O
10/26
-8
L
W
U
11/01
3
W
L
O