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  1. nfelo...
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  3. jaguars @ saints week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
5-9
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
38
NOSaints
5-9
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
13
8
27
Saints
14
10
7
7
38

Spread

NO logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
414
537
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
7.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.29
Passing Yards
349
402
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.77
Rushing Yards
65
135
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
67%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.91
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-1.66
-1.65
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-3.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+91.3
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.9
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+35.7
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+35.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
2.6
69
10/18
-0.0
50
10/25
-5.0
16
11/08
-1.1
43
11/15
-5.1
14
11/19
-2.6
31
11/29
2.7
71
12/06
8.1
94
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
-1.8
37
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83
12/21
8.0
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Saints Defense
Jaguars logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31

EPA

EPA / Play
24
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
32
Saints Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Saints logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
14
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
9
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-7
L
L
O
10/18
-11
L
L
O
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-5
L
W
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/19
6
W
W
U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-3
L
P
O
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-22
L
L
O
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O