JAXJaguars
5-9
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
038
NOSaints
5-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
13
8
27
Saints
14
10
7
7
38
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
537
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
7.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.29
Passing Yards
349
402
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.77
Rushing Yards
65
135
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
67%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.91
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-1.66
-1.65
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-3.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+90.3
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+35.7
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+35.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
24
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
32
Saints Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
14
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U