nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ seahawks week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-2
17
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
17 mph
45
SEASeahawks
2-0
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
10
7
17
Seahawks
7
17
14
7
45

Spread

SEA logo
-19.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
265
479
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
4.0
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.19
Passing Yards
214
323
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
11.1
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.43
Rushing Yards
51
156
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.23
-8.79
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-4.70
-6.56
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-2.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-17.5
Current
-19.5
Model
-19.5

Win Probability

Market93.4%
Model93.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+477
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,280
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
460.3
Model Spread
-19.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
09/18
-4.8
20
09/25
-1.5
40
10/02
-6.1
13
11/25
-5.4
16
12/02
-5.1
18
12/09
-9.0
4
12/16
-2.2
34
12/23
-1.2
40
12/30
-6.8
10
09/15
-2.0
38
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
9.2
95
12/09
-1.2
40
12/16
11.9
98
12/23
5.4
83
12/30
3.8
73
01/06
-0.7
45
01/13
10.4
97
09/08
4.3
80
09/15
-7.4
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
30
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
21
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
30
RZ Efficiency
14
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/18
-6
L
W
O
11/25
5
W
W
U
12/02
-16
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-21
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/30
-18
L
L
O
09/08
-26
L
L
U
09/15
-10
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
58
W
W
O
12/16
33
W
W
O
12/23
29
W
W
O
12/30
7
W
L
U
01/06
10
W
W
U
01/13
-2
L
W
O
09/08
5
W
W
U
09/15
26
W
W
U