JAXJaguars
0-2
17
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
17 mph
45
SEASeahawks
2-0
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
10
7
17
Seahawks
7
17
14
7
45
Spread
-19.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
479
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
4.0
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.19
Passing Yards
214
323
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
11.1
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.43
Rushing Yards
51
156
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.23
-8.79
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-4.70
-6.56
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-2.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-17.5
Current
-19.5
Model
-19.5
Win Probability
Market93.4%
Model93.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+481
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,277
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
460.3
Model Spread
-19.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
30
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U