JAXJaguars
2-2
0
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
041
SEASeahawks
1-3
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
0
0
Seahawks
3
17
14
1
35
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
199
379
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.24
Passing Yards
161
236
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.41
Rushing Yards
38
143
Rush Attempts
15
40
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.66
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-21.51
-1.36
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-9.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Seahawks
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U