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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ seahawks week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-2
0
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
0
41
SEASeahawks
1-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
0
0
Seahawks
3
17
14
1
35

Spread

SEA logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
199
379
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.24
Passing Yards
161
236
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.41
Rushing Yards
38
143
Rush Attempts
15
40
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.66
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-21.51
-1.36
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-9.96
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
11/23
-2.4
32
12/01
0.7
57
12/07
-5.0
16
12/14
5.0
84
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76
10/04
10.3
97
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Value
Ptile
01/12
0.3
52
09/07
-8.8
4
09/14
-5.5
12
09/21
0.8
58
10/05
-5.0
15
11/16
-6.3
9
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10
09/13
5.4
84
09/20
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14

EPA

EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
1
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
31
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
30
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-18
L
L
P
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
20
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
P
P
11/27
-25
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
W
P
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
U
09/20
-13
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
O
10/04
-17
L
L
O