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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ steelers week 19, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
11-6
45
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
18°F
2 mph
42
PITSteelers
13-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
18°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
14
8
0
17
39
Steelers
0
14
7
21
42

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
378
545
Total Plays
61
78
Yards / Play
6.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
462
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
37/58(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.25
Rushing Yards
164
83
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.51
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-10.06
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
+6.82
-5.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+73.0
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
11/05
4.6
83
11/12
-3.1
31
11/19
-4.2
24
11/26
1.1
60
12/03
7.9
93
12/10
4.2
81
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
2.7
72
12/31
-10.0
3
01/07
0.9
59
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Value
Ptile
10/15
-0.0
51
10/22
3.0
75
10/29
0.2
54
11/12
0.1
52
11/16
6.5
89
11/26
8.2
94
12/04
2.4
69
12/10
11.0
99
12/17
2.8
72
12/25
3.1
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
6
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
19
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
16
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/19
12
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
38
W
W
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
-5
L
L
U
01/07
7
W
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
15
W
W
O
10/29
5
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/16
23
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
L
O
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/10
1
W
L
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/25
28
W
W
U
12/31
4
W
L
O