JAXJaguars
11-6
45
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
18°F
2 mph
42
PITSteelers
13-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
18°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
14
8
0
17
39
Steelers
0
14
7
21
42
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
545
Total Plays
61
78
Yards / Play
6.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
462
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
37/58(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.25
Rushing Yards
164
83
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.51
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-10.06
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
+6.82
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+72.1
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U