JAXJaguars
-
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
07
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
7
3
23
Texans
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
203
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.7
2.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.48
Passing Yards
--
110
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-1.07
Rushing Yards
155
93
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
8
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-26.07
Sacks
--
10
Sack Yards
--
-54
Sack EPA
--
-29.72
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
89
94
Penalty EPA
-11.35
-10.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+41.3
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
88.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U