nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
-
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
7
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
7
3
23
Texans
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

JAX logo
+6

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
280
203
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.7
2.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.48
Passing Yards
--
110
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-1.07
Rushing Yards
155
93
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
8
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-26.07
Sacks
--
10
Sack Yards
--
-54
Sack EPA
--
-29.72
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
89
94
Penalty EPA
-11.35
-10.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model62.0%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+41.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
85.2
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Value
Ptile
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65
11/13
2.2
65
11/20
-2.3
31
11/27
2.2
66
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
6
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
20
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
W
O
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O