JAXJaguars
0-2
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
1-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
14
7
7
31
Texans
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
397
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
6.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.40
Rushing Yards
184
111
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.68
-8.71
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.03
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-3.38
-6.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.1
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
4
21
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-1-8
O/U