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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-2
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
24
HOUTexans
1-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
14
7
7
31
Texans
7
14
3
0
24

Spread

JAX logo
+4

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
398
397
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
6.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.40
Rushing Yards
184
111
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.68
-8.71
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.03
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-3.38
-6.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.1
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Value
Ptile
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
-7.9
7
11/23
-2.4
32
12/01
0.7
57
12/07
-5.0
16
12/14
5.0
84
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
3.2
73
10/19
4.4
80
10/26
8.4
95
11/02
-5.4
13
12/07
8.2
95
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
09/20
11.7
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
4
21
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
24
W
W
P
11/16
-10
L
L
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-28
L
L
P
11/16
-6
L
W
P
11/23
10
W
W
P
12/01
13
W
W
P
12/07
3
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
W
P
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O