JAXJaguars
0-3
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
3
7
0
20
Texans
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
435
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
5.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
155
334
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.36
Rushing Yards
158
101
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+7.05
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-2.20
-2.13
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
45
93
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
107.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
26
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U