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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 8, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-5
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
24
HOUTexans
4-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
7
14
Texans
7
0
7
10
24

Spread

JAX logo
HOU logo
10
P

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
174
358
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.15
Passing Yards
90
202
Comp/Att
10/32(31%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.08
Rushing Yards
84
156
Rush Attempts
25
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.91
-13.04
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-2.00
-8.47
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
39
60
Penalty EPA
-3.77
-10.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
-5.1
18
10/02
-7.5
7
10/09
-1.4
41
10/16
-6.3
13
10/24
-8.0
6
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
12/19
1.4
57
12/26
3.6
73
01/02
4.5
79
09/11
-2.5
33
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
10/23
7.1
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
25
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
11
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
20
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
22
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-10
L
L
O
12/26
-3
L
L
U
01/02
-17
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
-29
L
L
U
09/25
-6
L
L
U
10/02
-13
L
L
U
10/09
-10
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/24
5
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
L
U
01/02
17
W
W
O
09/11
27
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
34
W
W
O