JAXJaguars
2-5
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
4-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
7
14
Texans
7
0
7
10
24
Spread
10
P
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
174
358
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.15
Passing Yards
90
202
Comp/Att
10/32(31%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.08
Rushing Yards
84
156
Rush Attempts
25
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.91
-13.04
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-2.00
-8.47
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
39
60
Penalty EPA
-3.77
-10.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
20
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U