JAXJaguars
1-9
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
06
HOUTexans
2-8
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
3
13
Texans
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
218
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.28
Passing Yards
215
141
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.33
Rushing Yards
118
77
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.41
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-28
Sack EPA
-6.46
-4.04
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
63
22
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-3.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+255
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,188
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-106.8
Home QB Adjustment
-89.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
22
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U