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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-9
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
6
HOUTexans
2-8
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
3
13
Texans
0
3
3
0
6

Spread

JAX logo
+10.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
333
218
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.28
Passing Yards
215
141
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.33
Rushing Yards
118
77
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.41
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-28
Sack EPA
-6.46
-4.04
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
63
22
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-3.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,185
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-106.8
Home QB Adjustment
-89.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
-2.2
34
12/23
-1.2
40
12/30
-6.8
10
09/15
-2.0
38
09/22
-7.7
9
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
-5.9
15
10/27
3.2
72
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-1.6
42
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.0
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29

EPA

EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
22
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-26
L
L
U
09/15
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-28
L
L
O
09/29
-34
L
L
U
10/06
-14
L
L
O
10/13
-16
L
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-32
L
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
O
11/17
-13
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
L
O
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-31
L
L
U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O