JAXJaguars
2-11
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
7-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
13
7
0
20
Texans
0
3
6
10
19
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
150
387
Total Plays
50
78
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
83
--
Comp/Att
12/28(43%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.16
Rushing Yards
67
79
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
23
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
23%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.51
-10.53
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-3.28
--
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
91
71
Penalty EPA
-3.51
-6.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U