JAXJaguars
5-10
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
030
HOUTexans
8-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
3
0
6
Texans
3
17
0
4
24
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
402
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
4.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.58
-0.09
Passing Yards
183
242
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.84
-0.05
Rushing Yards
32
160
Rush Attempts
14
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.57
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
8%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.01
-5.44
Sacks
8
2
Sack Yards
-56
-7
Sack EPA
-19.61
-2.43
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
53
55
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-7.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-45.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+39.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+39.7
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
22
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U