JAXJaguars
3-3
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
11 mph
30
TENTitans
0-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
6
0
13
Titans
3
10
10
7
30
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
430
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
6.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.26
Passing Yards
113
--
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
15/18(83%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.38
Rushing Yards
217
305
Rush Attempts
16
49
Yards / Rush
13.6
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.74
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.79
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-4.71
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+14.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
18
27
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-2-4
O/U