nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-4
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
71°F
3 mph
36
TENTitans
3-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
71°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
8
14
22
Titans
3
24
6
3
36

Spread

TEN logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
372
494
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
5.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.31
Passing Yards
322
--
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
19/23(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.67
Rushing Yards
50
214
Rush Attempts
12
43
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.64
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.85
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
54
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-4.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32
10/23
-3.2
25
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Value
Ptile
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
12/20
-8.0
4
09/11
1.6
61
09/18
0.5
53
09/25
-6.2
11
10/02
-3.7
22
10/09
9.5
96
10/16
6.2
87
10/23
-0.2
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4

EPA

EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
25
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
11
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
1
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-17
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-9
L
L
O
09/18
1
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
U
10/02
-7
L
L
O
10/09
13
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
O