JAXJaguars
2-4
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
71°F
3 mph
36
TENTitans
3-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
71°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
8
14
22
Titans
3
24
6
3
36
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
494
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
5.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.31
Passing Yards
322
--
Comp/Att
33/54(61%)
19/23(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.67
Rushing Yards
50
214
Rush Attempts
12
43
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.64
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.85
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
54
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U