JAXJaguars
0-8
29
TBD
Nissan Stadium
62°F
6 mph
27
TENTitans
4-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
3
7
1
21
Titans
0
7
3
17
27
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
362
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
3.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
160
279
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.04
Rushing Yards
54
83
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
1.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-7.36
-20.40
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-9
Sack EPA
-5.22
-7.18
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
19
45
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model80.2%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+11.5
Expected Value
+3.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,212
Home Field
-25.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.5
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
243.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U