JAXJaguars
4-7
39
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
1 mph
42
TENTitans
2-9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
12
7
20
39
Titans
7
14
0
15
36
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
467
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
6.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.14
Passing Yards
302
257
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.26
Rushing Yards
81
210
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
71%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
10
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
6
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.97
-8.67
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-20
-11
Sack EPA
-6.54
-7.79
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+22.4
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+9.7
Final Difference
16.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U