JAX logo
JAX
4-8
36
22
TEN
7-5
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
13
13
3
36
Titans
14
0
0
8
22

Spread

JAX logo
+4

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
428
366
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
6.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
229
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.21
Rushing Yards
60
137
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-19.95
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-8.72
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
50
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-6.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+14.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
6
25