JAXJaguars
4-8
36
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
8 mph
22
TENTitans
7-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
13
13
3
36
Titans
14
0
0
8
22
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
366
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
6.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
229
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.21
Rushing Yards
60
137
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-19.95
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-8.72
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
50
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+14.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U