JAXJaguars
4-10
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
2 mph
23
TENTitans
7-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
7
17
Titans
10
7
3
3
23
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
407
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
4.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.03
Passing Yards
187
342
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.11
Rushing Yards
113
65
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
28%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-14.16
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-2.31
-1.91
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-6.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,370
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
-6.5
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U