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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
4-10
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
2 mph
23
TENTitans
7-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
7
17
Titans
10
7
3
3
23

Spread

JAX logo
+8

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
300
407
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
4.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.03
Passing Yards
187
342
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.11
Rushing Yards
113
65
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
28%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.15
-14.16
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-2.31
-1.91
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-6.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
-13.0
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.4
41
10/16
-6.3
13
10/24
-8.0
6
10/30
-8.7
4
11/13
-6.0
15
11/20
-0.7
47
11/27
-10.5
1
12/05
-1.1
44
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.1
43
10/23
-7.5
8
10/30
0.6
56
11/06
3.2
73
11/13
-0.1
51
11/20
-4.1
24
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
5
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-10
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/24
5
W
W
U
10/30
-10
L
P
U
11/13
14
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-21
L
L
O
10/23
-34
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
27
W
W
U
11/20
-6
L
P
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U