JAX logo
JAX
2-13
20
38
TEN
5-10
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
39°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
0
0
14
Titans
7
2
2
3
14

Spread

TEN logo
-6

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
375
221
Total Plays
72
51
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.29
Passing Yards
253
142
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
9/15(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.10
Rushing Yards
122
79
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
14
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.49
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-45
-10
Sack EPA
-9.47
-4.35
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
35
43
Penalty EPA
-4.32
+1.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model66.5%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,291
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+13.8
Final Difference
119.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15