JAXJaguars
2-13
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
39°F
4 mph
38
TENTitans
5-10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
39°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
0
0
14
Titans
7
2
2
3
14
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
221
Total Plays
72
51
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.29
Passing Yards
253
142
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
9/15(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.10
Rushing Yards
122
79
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
14
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.49
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-45
-10
Sack EPA
-9.47
-4.35
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
35
43
Penalty EPA
-4.32
+1.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
119.5
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U