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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
10-5
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
23°F
5 mph
15
TENTitans
8-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
23°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
1
4
Titans
0
12
3
0
15

Spread

TEN logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
229
232
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
3.8
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.29
Passing Yards
146
116
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
116
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
13
11
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-6.06
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-3.28
-4.16
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-9.59
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model48.3%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+41.3
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-61.4
Final Difference
-11.8
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Value
Ptile
10/15
-3.2
30
10/22
3.9
80
11/05
4.6
83
11/12
-3.1
31
11/19
-4.2
24
11/26
1.1
60
12/03
7.9
93
12/10
4.2
81
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
2.7
72
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.6
65
10/22
-3.1
31
11/05
-0.1
51
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
12/17
3.6
78
12/24
-0.1
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
6
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
10
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
11
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
16
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
10/22
27
W
W
U
11/05
16
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/19
12
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
38
W
W
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
14
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/03
11
W
W
U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
12/17
-2
L
W
O
12/24
-4
L
W
O