JAXJaguars
10-5
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
23°F
5 mph
15
TENTitans
8-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
23°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
1
4
Titans
0
12
3
0
15
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
232
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
3.8
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.29
Passing Yards
146
116
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
116
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
11
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-6.06
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-3.28
-4.16
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-9.59
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model48.1%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+2.5
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-66.0
Final Difference
-13.5
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
11
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U